As the seasons shift from summer to fall, fraud trends are evolving just as rapidly as consumer behavior. Rippleshot’s September 2025 Fraud Intelligence Report – derived from our proprietary consortium of over 5,000 financial institutions and 50 million daily transactions – highlights key changes in the fraud landscape that demand attention from fraud teams.

This month, three merchant categories stand out: Travel Agencies, General Merchandise Stores, and Amusement & Entertainment. Each shows a unique signal – revealing how fraudsters are adapting, embedding, and in some cases, lying in wait.

Let’s unpack the most pressing insights from this month’s report—and what they mean for financial institutions preparing for Q4.

Travel Fraud: Still Taking Off, Even as Trips Wind Down

Even with the summer travel peak behind us, Travel Agencies (MCC 4722) remain a high-risk category. Despite only a modest +1.38% increase in fraud dollars and a +3.61% rise in spend, the fraud rate stayed alarmingly high at 13.78 basis points.

Why does this matter? Fraud linked to travel often operates on longer timelines – such as advance bookings and delayed chargebacks. That means fraudulent activity initiated months ago may just now be surfacing as disputes.

What to watch:
Don’t pull back on monitoring just because the calendar says summer is over. Travel fraud is still in motion – and may spike as unrecognized charges from international trips or prepaid reservations emerge. Deploying post-authorization velocity rules and extending dispute windows can reduce exposure.

General Merchandise: The Calm Before the Fraud Storm?

General Merchandise Stores (MCC 5399) showed a significant drop in reported fraud—down -15.52%—but this may not be the victory it seems. Legitimate spend rose +13.14%, producing a negative fraud-to-spend index.

On the surface, this suggests an improving environment. But our analysis flags this divergence as a red flag, not a green light.

The risk: Fraudsters often pause activity in high-volume retail categories ahead of major shopping periods—like back-to-school and holiday—to avoid detection. This “lay low” strategy can mask growing fraud until it bursts post-Black Friday.

Action to take:
Use this fraud-spend mismatch as a leading indicator. Fine-tune your rule sets now and get ahead of the seasonal fraud surge.

Entertainment and Amusement: Fraud Isn’t Taking a Break

With peak summer events wrapping up, many might expect fraud targeting amusement parks and entertainment venues (MCC 7996) to decline. Instead, fraud jumped +47.11%, outpacing spend growth of +26.57%. The result? A fraud rate surge to 19.92 basis points.

This behavior illustrates how fraudsters follow opportunity, not the calendar. Late-season promotions, extended warm weather, and gaps in merchant verification continue to make this category an attractive target.

Your move:
Don’t let your guard down after Labor Day. This is a signal that fraud isn’t as seasonal as we once thought.

Key Takeaways: Where Your Fraud Strategy Should Focus Now

Rippleshot’s September analysis reveals a broader theme: Fraud isn’t slowing – it’s shifting. Here are four strategic insights you can act on today:

1. Don’t ease rules too soon.
   Travel and entertainment categories remain vulnerable beyond their seasonal peaks.
2. Use fraud-to-spend divergence as a signal.
   Categories with falling fraud but rising spend (like MCC 5399) often indicate suppressed fraud about to spike.
3. Target elevated BPS categories.
   Focus surveillance on MCCs where the cost-per-dollar risk remains high – such as Department Stores (20.77 bps), Electronics (34.75 bps), and Amusement (19.92 bps).
4. Stay alert to “routine” fraud.
   Subtle patterns may hide in everyday categories. Let your detection strategies evolve beyond static rules.

Intelligence That Drives Action

Rippleshot clients leverage this intelligence through our AI-powered tools – Sonar and Rules Assist – designed to deliver predictive risk signals and dynamic rule sets that evolve with the fraud landscape.

If your team is relying solely on historical data or reactive alerts, you’re already behind. Rippleshot helps institutions shift from fraud recovery to fraud prevention – driving up to 7x ROI, lowering false positives, and preserving account holder trust.

👉 Download the full report to access data visualizations, MCC-level insights, and strategic recommendations for your fraud team.

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